BY BILL HAWKINS Associated Press reporter Bill Hawkings in Washington (AP) In the wake of the worst-case scenarios for the U.S. economy in the event of a severe global climate change event, some economists say it is worth taking a step back from predicting the economy will be stronger in the long run, rather than trying to predict the economic impact of what might be the worst economic scenario for the economy.
In a recent analysis of the economic and political consequences of a climate change scenario, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine and other academic and government organizations concluded that the impact of climate change on economic performance is unclear and would be likely to be mixed and uncertain, with the potential for long-term economic damage to be greater than the economic benefit.
The NASEM study, published Thursday in the peer-reviewed journal Science, examined four scenarios of the impacts of global warming: a moderate, moderate, medium and severe scenario, in which the world stays within a 2°C (3.6°F) increase in global temperature and a 4°C (-7.3°F), 5°C(-10.2°F)-7°C increase in average temperature, to give a range of 1.5 to 7.5°C.
The NASEM analysis did not examine whether a higher-than-average level of warming would be worse for the nation’s economy than a lower-than/neutral scenario.
The researchers used the models’ projections of economic growth to determine how much warming would cause economic damage and how much damage it would do to the economy, based on current economic conditions.
In the study, the researchers found that a 4.2% increase in temperature would lead to an increase in the number of unemployed people by 1.4 million, which would increase unemployment by 1% in the second half of the century, a rate that would then grow by 2% to 3.2 million people over the next decade.
The authors of the report also found that the impacts would vary by state and county, with some regions experiencing economic damage more quickly than others.
Some areas, like northern and central Appalachia, would see economic damage in the first half of century.
For example, in New York, a moderate-warming scenario, where temperatures rise by 2°F and average temperature stays around 1.6ºF, the economy would lose 3.3 million jobs in the year 2100, the NASEM report said.
A 5.5% increase would have a similar effect in New Jersey, which is expected to lose 4.1 million jobs.
In contrast, a 4% increase that results in a 5% increase over the year 2025 would lead the economy to lose 2.5 million jobs, while a 4-6% increase could result in an additional 2.9 million jobs for New Jersey.
In some parts of the country, the losses would be even greater.
In all cases, the authors said, economic damage would be more likely in warmer areas, where people have to work longer hours, where there is more demand for transportation and services and where there are fewer jobs in fields that require higher levels of education.
Climate change has been a concern for policymakers since the late 1970s.
Since then, scientists have learned more about how extreme weather events could have devastating effects, and many experts now say that if we don’t do anything to curb global warming, we will face more severe consequences for the future of our planet.
While the economic impacts of climate changes are hard to predict, the report says there are some signs that they could have severe effects.
The number of people in the United States that have never been to a job or gone to school has been increasing, the study said.
The increase in unemployment among those people is increasing and they are more likely to have experienced family breakdown, leaving them with less income, the analysis found.
Other economic and social impacts, like the erosion of traditional families, will also be more difficult to predict.
The U.N. Population Fund found that there are more people in poverty today than there were in 1950.
Climate experts said they expect that the economic effects of climate disruption will continue to be a major concern as climate change intensifies.